Special Events

Create special events to fine-tune the volume forecast, and then assign the special events to one or more categories on the business structure.

When you create a special event, you can choose how much data the Forecast Manager users to calculate the impact of a special event. A number that is too small affects the accuracy of the forecasts. A number that is too large can slow system performance.

Note: If you delete a special event, the volume data for the affected categories is not automatically recalculated. Run the Forecast Manager to update the data.

  1. Go to Administration > Application Setup > Forecaster Setup > Special Events.
  2. On the Create Special Events tab, click New or select a special event and select an action.
  3. Select Seasonal to identify the special event as a time period that affects the traffic pattern over a period of several weeks at a time.

  4. Note: A Seasonal event does not appear as an event in the Forecast Planner; the Forecast Planner uses seasonal events when it calculated a traffic pattern.

  5. In Years for Composite Values select the number of years for the system to look back for special events. The system uses a weighted average of all like events that occur in that time period.

    The system first looks for like events that occur on the same day of the week. For example, if a Two-for-One sale occurs on a Friday in the forecast, the system gives more weight to historical Two-for-One sales that occurred on a Friday.

  6. In Weeks for Normal Values select the number of weeks worth of “normal” like days to gather for the forecast.

    The Forecast Planner compares “normal” days without the event to historical days with the event to calculate the percent impact of the event. It then applies this percent to the forecast for the special event.

  7. Treatment in Ratio Calculation determines how the system manages event data that is well outside of the range of a normal day:

    • Normalize Historical Events — The system looks at historical occurrences of the event and then adjusts for data that varies from the norm.

      For example, if an event day is included in the days that the system uses to forecast volume, the system adjusts the volume of the event day so that the volume falls within the range of the non-event days.

      The system keeps the shape of the traffic pattern, but the data for the forecast is lowered (or raised) to align with the non-event days.

    • Discard Historical Events —The system ignores data for dates with this special event in future forecasts; for example, when the store was closed for a snow storm, and thus the volume was zero.

  8. Select Save & Close.

After you create special events, assign them to the business structure. When you assign a special event to a category, all categories below it inherit and are affected by the special event.

Note: Caution: Special events can be changed only at the level at which they were assigned. For example, if a special event is assigned to a region, sites below the region level cannot change it.

  1. Go to Administration > Application Setup > Forecaster Setup > Special Events.

  2. Click the Assign Special Events tab.

  3. Select a Forecast Week and select the category to which you are assigning the special event.

    Note: Special Events on the list have a Start Date that falls within the Filter Start Date and Filter End Date. If no special events are scheduled in that time frame, the Special Event column is blank.

  4. To change the date range for special events, select a Filter Start Date and a Filter End Date. Click Filter. The date range cannot exceed one year.
  5. Select a Special Event and a Start Date and an End Date for the assignment.
  6. Select Save.